Google To Open Affiliate Network?
I guess it’s a month late, but here’s my prediction for 2006: By the end of the year Google will make a full-fledged venture into affiliate marketing, directly competing with established networks like Commission Junction and LinkShare. The signs are all there. This “Google Affiliate” product will be an extension to Google Adsense, which lets webmasters get paid for showing ads on their site. But instead of simply getting paid a few cents when someone clicks an ad on their site, the webmaster would be paid a much more handsome amount if that click converts into a sale.
The most important reason for Google to enter the affiliate marketing arena is simply diversification. Right now alarm bells are going off with their investors since 99% of the company’s revenue comes from pay per click advertising, which is wrought with fraud. Indeed in latest 10-Q report, Google says if it can’t control click fraud they “could lose the confidence of its advertisers.” A recent report by Wired Magazine was more pessimistic, saying that click fraud could “crash the entire online economy.” Such fraud is virtually non-existent when dealing with affiliate marketing because advertisers pay only if an action is taken, be it someone purchases a product, signs up for a service, etc. In truth the problem of fraud actually switches from someone dishonestly clicking a link to a company that dishonestly forgets to report a sale to the network and pay a commission and transaction fee. The solution, however is simple for Google since they can simply require all merchants to use their newly acquired Analytics product which already tracks ecommerce transactions. In fact there are reports that Google is already using such conversion information to compensate Adsense webmasters that drive more sales with higher pay rates.
The transition to pay for performance from pay per click will be a natural one for Google. Currently they already offer a few in-house affiliate programs that deal with their own services. For example if you refer a webmaster to Adsense via a button (like the one on the right) and they make $100 in sales within 90 days then you make a $100 bonus as well. Similarly if you can get someone to download Firefox with the Google toolbar they’ll pay you $1 in commission. [ Interestingly enough they don’t pay for clicks, an admission, I believe, that they are well aware of the amount of fraud involved in pay per click advertising and they simply don’t want to deal with it. ] Google is also very interested in spreading into other aspects of advertising, having recently made forays into both radio and print. They are also constant experimenting with their online advertisements, first by introducing graphic ads and most recently by allowing advertisers to use dynamic rich media ads.
So when would this “Google Affiliate” network be released? Only time will tell. However being late to the market hurt them in the instant messaging field so I expect it to be within the next few quarters. They will probably also merge it into Adsense and Adwords thereby having a large network of affiliates and merchants nearly overnight. I for one, can’t wait to see how this could turn out.
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